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ANALYSIS OF THE EVIDENCE OBTAINED BY THE TASK FORCE
Based on the information in this INS summary and the information in the Orange County voter list, the potential matches identified by the Task Force have been divided into 15 categories. Each category is based upon a match between the Orange County voter registration rolls and INS records, and/or the source of the information that casts suspicion as to the legitimacy of that voter. Each category is in turn subdivided based on relevant criteria such as the naturalization status of the individual in the INS files, the place of birth claimed by the person on the Orange County voter registration affidavit, the age of the individual or the sex of the individual. The naturalization status categories are: (1) the individual is not naturalized, (2) the individual naturalized after registering to vote, and (3) the individual naturalized after voting.
The Task Force's analysis of each individual vote rests on the rebuttable presumption that each vote cast was cast legally. Therefore, the Task Force undertook the task of discovering documentary evidence that a person was not a citizen as of the date of their registration. The Task Force never presumes that any voters were illegal.
The Task Force's effort to investigate this allegation has involved the detailed review of information related to over 7,871 voters. The Task Force has only reviewed voters for whom the Task Force obtained an initial indication that the person may not have been eligible to cast a ballot in the November 1996 election.
The Task Force has documented evidence indicating that 624 persons registered when they were not citizens. Of these, 82 persons naturalized after they registered but before they cast their ballot. In addition, 26 claimed that they were born in the United States when they registered. The Task Force has attempted to verify the birth-records of these voters that appear to match INS files. Persons whose birth-records have been verified have been removed from the Majority's count. However, without additional information such as mother's maiden name and city of birth, a birth-record check is impossible to complete accurately.
In addition there are 196 persons for whom the Task Force has discovered some circumstantial indication that they may not have been citizens when they registered. However this information is incomplete and possibly inaccurate. For example, records of individuals who have disclaimed citizenship when summoned for jury duty have a 33% error rate. When a sample of 450 records was tested, it was determined 150 records were incorrectly scanned into the Orange County Superior Court's computer database. Also, a number of paper files have been `lost' by the INS and the error rate between electronic and paper files exceeds 50%. Finally, 41 matches in this circumstantial category involve voters who claim U.S. birth.
Of the remaining files reviewed by the Task Force: 5,303 persons were actually citizens at the time that they registered and 1,718 persons appear to have registered improperly but did not vote in the November 1996 election. Summary of Results:
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Category
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Documented Evidence of Invalid Voting
1. Absentee Ballots--identified by the OC Registrar 124
Sub-total 124 124
2. Hermandad Registrants--identified by the California Secretary of State and the LA Office of the INS (independently confirmed by CHO work) 278
4. Exact Address 120
3. Signatures Match 71
5. Exact Middle Initial 88
6. Address Same City 19
7. Address CA-46 3
8. Address Orange County 7
9. Address California 38
Sub-total 624 748
Circumstantial Indication of Invalid Voting
10. Address US 53
11. Address None 12
12. Border Crossing Cards (only name and birthdate information) 34
13. Student Visas (only name and birthdate information) 3
14. INS Lost paper files (born after 1957) 19
15. OC Jury List (born after 1957) 75
Sub-total 196 944
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1. The Orange County Registrar of Voters: 124
The Orange County Registrar of Voter determined that 124 absentee ballots were invalid. The Registrar also referred 11 potential double votes and 4 potential business address votes to the Orange County District Attorney. The District Attorney has not confirmed that any of these votes were illegal and therefore has taken no action.
2. Persons Registered by Hermandad Mexicana Nacional: 278
The California Secretary of State and the Los Angeles Office of the INS have identified 306 persons illegally registered by Hermandad who voted in the November 1996 election. The Task Force has been able to confirm, through its own investigation, that 278 persons were illegally registered by Hermandad and voted in the November, 1996 election. Of these, 93 voters were naturalized after they registered.
3. Exact address
In addition to a First Name/Last Name/Date-of-Birth match, the address from the Orange County voter registration affidavit matches the address in an INS file.
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Not naturalized Naturalized after registering Naturalized after voting Total Total (percent)
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Voter claims foreign birthplace 49 61 7 117 97.5
Voter claims US birthplace 3 0 0 3 2.5
Total 52 61 7 120 100
43.3% 50.8% 5.8%
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4. Matching signatures
The signature from the Orange County voter registration affidavit matches the signature from an INS alien file.
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Not naturalized Naturalized after registering Naturalized after voting Total Total (percent)
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Voter claims foreign birthplace 54 9 1 64 90.1
Voter claims US birthplace 5 2 0 7 9.9
Total 59 11 1 71 100
83.1% 15.5% 1.4%
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5. Exact middle initial
In addition to a First Name/Last Name/Date-of-Birth match, the middle initial from the Orange County voter registration rolls matches the middle initial from the INS records. The address information that relates to these matching files subdivides the middle initial matches.
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A-SC A-CA46 A-9C A-CA A-US A-NO Total Total (percent)
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Voter claims foreign birthplace 17/2 nar 10/1 nar/1 nav 7 21/1nav 13 7 80 90.9
Voter claims US birthplace 0 0 1 0 5/1 nar 1 8 9.1
Total 19 12 8 22 19 8
21.6% 13.6% 9.1% 25% 21.6% 9.1% 88 100
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6. Address same city
In addition to a First Name/Last Name/Date-of-Birth match, the address from the Orange County voter registration affidavit is in the same city as the address from an INS record. Middle initial data is either blank in both the Orange County registration file and the INS file or blank in one set of data.
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Not naturalized Naturalized after registering Naturalized after voting Total Total (percent)
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Voter claims foreign birthplace 16 0 0 16 84.2
Voter claims US birthplace 2 1 0 3 15.8
Total 18 1 0
94.7% 5.35% 0% 19 100
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7. Address CA-46
In addition to a First Name/Last Name/Date-of-Birth match the address from the Orange County voter registration affidavits and the address from an INS record are both within CA-46. Middle initial data is either blank in both the Orange County registration file and the INS file or blank in one set of data.
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Not naturalized Naturalized after registering Naturalized after voting Total
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Voter claims foreign birthplace 3 0 0 3
Voter claims US birthplace 0 0 0 0
Total 3 0 0 3
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8. Address Orange County
In addition to a First Name/Last Name/Date-of-Birth match: the address from the Orange County voter registration affidavits and the address from an INS record are both within Orange County. Middle initial data is either blank in both the Orange County registration file and the INS file or blank in one set of data.
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Not naturalized Naturalized after registering Naturalized after voting Total
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Voter claims foreign birthplace 7 0 0 7
Voter claims US birthplace 0 0 0 0
Total 7 0 0 7
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9. Address California
In addition to a First Name/Last Name/Date-of-Birth match: the address from the Orange County voter registration affidavits and the address from an INS record are both within California. Middle initial data is either blank in both the Orange County registration file and the INS file or blank in one set of data. Eight of the INS addresses in this data are dated and place the individual at the address outside of Orange County in 1995-96.
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Not naturalized Naturalized after registering Naturalized after voting Total Total (percent)
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Voter claims foreign birthplace 28 0 0 28 73.7
Voter claims US birthplace 10 0 0 10 26.3
Total 38 0 0 38 100
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10. Address United States
In addition to a First Name/Last Name/Date-of-Birth match: the address from the Orange County voter registration affidavits and the address from an INS record are both within the United States. Middle initial data is either blank in both the Orange County registration file and the INS file or blank in one set of data. Thirteen of the INS addresses in this data are dated and place the individual at the address outside of California in 1995-96.
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Not naturalized Naturalized after registering Naturalized after voting Total Total (percent)
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Voter claims Foreign birthplace 31 5 0 36 67.9
Voter claims US birthplace 17 0 0 17 32.1
Total 48 5 0 53 100
90.6% 9.4% 0
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Address none
In addition to a First Name/Last Name/Date-of-Birth match: the INS records have either no address information whatsoever or address information that relates to a foreign locale. Middle initial data is either blank in both the Orange County registration file and the INS file or blank in one set of data.
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Not naturalized Naturalized after registering Naturalized after voting Total Total (percent)
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Voter claims foreign birthplace 11 0 0 11 91.7
Voter claims US birthplace 1 0 0 1 8.3
Total 12 0 0 12 100
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Border crossing cards
A Citizen of Canada or a British subject residing in Canada or a citizen of Mexico may hold a nonresident alien border crossing card. 77
[Footnote] These persons are assigned alien numbers beginning with `80. A Border Crossing Card holder may enter limited areas of the United States for limited periods of time. The INS does not maintain a paper file on such persons. 78
[Footnote]
[Footnote 77: 8 CFR 212.6 Nonresident alien border crossing cards.]
[Footnote 78: INS letter July 3, 1997.]
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Exact middle initial Indeterminate middle initial Total Percent
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Voter claims foreign birthplace 17 6 23 67.6
Voter claims US birthplace 4 7 11 32.4
Total 21 13 34 100
61.8% 38.2%
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Student visas
These are matches between persons who have entered the United States on student visas and the Orange County registration files. The INS maintains limited information on these persons.
| Total | |
| Voter claims foreign birthplace | 3 |
| Voter claims US birthplace | 0 |
| Total | 3 |
INS lost files
These persons appear in the INS' electronic database without any evidence of naturalization but the INS has lost their hard files. The error rate between the initial electronic matches between the INS' electronic database and the checks of the INS' hard files has been 50%--half of the persons with no indication of naturalization in the computer database have naturalization certificates in their hard files. In addition, persons who became 18 prior to 1975 could have naturalized before the INS computerized its records. Women's files could also have been `lost' because they have changed their last name without notifying the INS or without the INS properly updating its database. There are 13 males born after 1957 who admit foreign birthplaces in this category.
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Male Female Total Total (percent)
Birth date 1957+ 1957+
Middle initial EMI IMI EMI IMI
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Voter claims foreign birthplace 8 1 4 4 17 89.5
Voter claims U.S. birthplace 0 1 0 1 2 10.5
Total 8 2 4 5 19
Total
(1)10
(1)9 19
Total (percent) 52.6 47.4 100
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15. Orange County jury list claimed non-citizen when summoned & the INS has no record: 167
In the period from January 1, 1996 to August 15, 1997 these persons may have claimed that they were not citizens when summoned for jury duty. The data entry system at the Orange County Superior Court has at least a 33% error rate. Therefore, these persons may have been excused from jury duty for a reason other than not being a citizen. (persons may also have indicated that they were citizens but been entered under a different code). In addition, for persons who naturalized before 1975, the INS may not have their names in their electronic databases. Further, women are more likely to have changed their last name. Therefore, the persons that arouse the most significant suspicion are the 40 admittedly foreign-born males born after 1957.
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Male Female Total Total (percent)
Birth date 1957+ 1957+
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Voter claims foreign birth place 40 25 65 86.7
Voter claims U.S. birthplace 7 3 10 13.3
Total 47 28 75
Total (percent) 62.7 37.3 100
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Offset Folios 50 to 97 Insert here
048
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